Thursday, August 9, 2007

Oil prices mixed in Asia midsession on US subprime credit woes

SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - Oil prices were mixed in Asian trade Friday, with the market taking a hit from the escalating contagion sparked by troubles in the US subprime credit sector.
There are concerns that the financial impact of US lending to borrowers with poor credit records would lead to slower economic growth in the US and elsewhere which would dampen demand for oil.
At 11:55 am (0355 GMT), New York's main contract, light sweet crude for September delivery, was down one cent at 71.58 US dollars a barrel from 71.59 dollars in late US trades Thursday.
Brent North Sea crude for September added seven cents to 70.28 dollars.
"There are concerns about the impact of the US credit woes on economic activity and hence oil demand," said Victor Shum, a Singapore-based analyst with energy consultancy Purvin and Gertz.
"Some investors have also moved their money out of oil to cover losses in other sectors."
The problems in the high-risk subprime home loan sector has been sending shockwaves through the markets worldwide.
In the latest development, BNP Paribas Investment Partners, a unit of French bank BNP Paribas, said it had suspended three of its funds exposed to the subprime market, triggering heavy selling in equities globally.
Oil prices have fallen sharply after hitting a fresh all-time high of 78.77 dollar on August 1.
"After establishing the new record high last week, the market was really vulnerable to a reversal," Shum said.
"All the market needed was a trigger and the market foundthat trigger in the concerns over the US subprime market."
But he said there appeared to be strong support for prices at 70 dollars, with falling US energy inventories and a refusal by the OPEC cartel to raise output expected to help keep prices buoyant.
US crude inventories fell 4.1 million barrels to 340.4 million barrels for the week ended August 3, against the consensus forecast for 2.75 million barrels.
US gasoline stocks dropped a surprising 1.7 million barrels against expectations for a rise of 775,000 barrels.
Shum said that with the US hurricane season around the corner, "weather remains a wild card" as storms could threaten US oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Stocks plunge on lending concerns

NEW YORK (AP) - The realization that weakness in the U.S. housing and credit markets is spreading -- and affecting companies and markets abroad -- sent Wall Street skidding sharply lower once more.
The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index suffered their biggest one-day plunges since Feb. 27, when subprime mortgage-related jitters were also partially responsible for a sell-off.
This time, investors cashed out of stocks and fled to safer assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds when a French bank said it was freezing three funds that invested in U.S. subprime mortgages. The reason: It was unable to properly value their assets. The announcement rekindled investors' fears that financial institutions will get tighter with their assets, and that companies, investors and individuals won't be able to borrow money.
As hard a fall as stocks took Thursday, the session was just the latest in a string of volatile days on Wall Street. Yet the Dow, bouncing up and down in triple-digit swings on an almost daily basis for the past few weeks, is only 5.2 percent below its record high reached last month, and is still up 6.5 percent for the year.


It doesn't look like Wall Street will be able to shake its fears about the credit market anytime soon.
A move by the European Central Bank to provide more cash to money markets added to Wall Street's anxiety Thursday. The ECB's loan of more than $130 billion to banks at a low rate of 4 percent -- its biggest loan ever -- was intended to placate the markets, but investors thought it confirmed that the credit markets are in need of a bailout.


Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve added a larger-than-normal $24 billion in temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system, and the Bank of Japan injected about $8.4 billion into money markets.
The ECB's injection of money into the system is an unprecedented move and suggests that problems in subprime lending are, in fact, spilling into the general economy, said Joseph V. Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan Beck & Co.


"This is a mini-panic," he said. "All the things that had been denied up until this point are unraveling. On top of this, retail sales were mediocre, which shows that indeed, the housing collapse is affecting the consumer."
U.S. retailers released July sales figures Thursday that were overall disappointing.
The French bank, BNP Paribas, said one of its units was suspending three funds, worth $3.79 billion in total, and wouldn't make investor redemptions until it could figure out how much the assets backing them were worth. These funds invest in risky home mortgages through securitization, where banks bundle different types of mortgages together and sell them to institutional investors, who then hope to benefit from homeowners making their mortgage payments.


Because many U.S. homeowners -- especially those with poor credit histories, or those who signed up for loans with rates that have recently surged -- haven't been making their mortgage payments, investing in these types of funds appears to be getting dicey.


Defaults, delinquencies and foreclosures don't only affect the housing market, Wall Street is discovering: When lenders suffer losses, they get tighter with their money. And if people are wary about taking on debt, corporate America's dealmaking can slow down, as buyers and sellers haggle over prices.
Raising anxiety about the credit market Thursday, The Home Depot Inc. warned that the sale of its wholesale business might bring in less than expected. The world's biggest home improvement retailer said the possible repricing is due to volatility in the stock, debt and housing markets.


Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

UPDATE:Asian Stocks, Forex Extend Global Selloff;Yen Rallies

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Extending a global selloff Asian stocks plunged Friday as traders sought to shore up capital wherever possible amid renewed jitters about the impact of a liquidity crisis in U.S. credit markets. The selling also made its way to several Asian currencies and to the region's offshore bond and credit markets, though the yen was buoyed amid unwinding of the carry trade. "This is what happens in a liquidity crisis, where they have positions which can be translated back into cash quickly, they will sell them," said Khiem Do, manager of the Asia Pacific Fund and head of Asian Multi-Asset at Baring Asset Management in Hong Kong. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average was recently off 2.5% to 16746.50; Korea's Kospi index was off 4.1% to 1831.19, Singapore's Straights Times Index lost 3.3% to 3298.42, the Standard & Poor's Australia Stock Exchange 200 slid 2.9% to 5986. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index fell 3.1% to 21,754.04.

As with U.S. and European markets overnight, selling in Asia was broad-based. Brokerages and banks were among the worst hit. Australia's Macquarie Bank (MBL.AU), lost 6.1% to A$72.79, Korea's Samsung Securities fell 5.6% to KRW79,300, and in Singapore, DBS Group slid 4.1% to S$20.90. On Friday Citigroup cut its price target on DBS and other Singapore banks to reflect, "re-pricing of risk," that might limit what traders are willing to pay for these stocks amid credit market worries. Still, the firm, in a note to clients, retained a buy rating on the group - arguing that the recent slide is a buying opportunity and that the banks' exposure to now illiquid credit instruments is limited.

Asia's U.S. dollar bonds and credit default swap markets also sold off on worries that a credit crunch could weaken a key pillar of support for Asian credit markets. "At the moment, no one is willing to buy bonds," said one trader. Long-dated Philippine bonds - considered a proxy for Asian high-yield bonds - fell as much as 1.5 points while intermediate paper was around 1 point down. Philippine five-year CDS was quoted at 185-195 basis points, around 5 bps wider from New York's close and 10 basis points wider from Asia's close Thursday. Among currencies, the turmoil sent the yen sharply higher as unwinding of the so-called carry trade spurred waves of yen buying. The dollar fell as low at Y117.72, down sharply from Y118.30 in New York. The euro was at Y160.81, far below Y161.86 New York.

The yen-carry trades unwinding hit the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar particularly hard. The New Zealand dollar plunged below Y88 to its lowest level since May 25. The selling began late in the trading session Thursday following word from France's BNP Paribas (13110.FR) that it suspended three of its asset-backed securities funds because of a "complete evaporation of liquidity." Also fueling the fire was a report in the Wall Street Journal that U.S. lender Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC) is facing "unprecedented disruptions" in debt and mortgage-finance markets that could hurt earnings and the company's financial condition. Countrywide is the largest U.S. home mortgage lender in terms of loan volume. Traders said moves by the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve to inject billions of dollars of fresh funds into money markets contributed to uncertainty overnight, prompting some head scratching about how worried regulators are. Both the Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia made similar moves Friday, though Australian regulators played down the liquidity injection as routine operations.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore also injected S$1.5 billion into the local money market Friday, traders said. The move came after MAS said earlier in the day that it was ready to intervene to stabilize the local market. Still, analysts expectations for further interest rate hikes were mixed. "We are still expecting the BOJ, ECB, BOE, BOC to hike rates the next few weeks, but if this panic gets worse, we may need to change that outlook," said JPMorgan Chase Bank currency strategist Tohru Sasaki. Barclays Capital's chief JGB strategist, Masuhisa Kobayashi, said the sudden supply of liquidity by the world's central banks can be interpreted either as a reaction to crisis or as a step to prevent one. "Taking the latter, more optimistic interpretation, we believe the possibility of an August rate hike should not be ruled out," he said. According to Credit Suisse, the likelihood of a rate increase by the BOJ at its meeting in late August fell to 37% from 64% the day before.

-By Mohammed Hadi, Dow Jones Newswires; 65-6415-4147; mohammed.hadi@dowjones.com. (END) Dow Jones Newswires

Philippine central bank chief sees limited impact from US subprime crisis

MANILA (Thomson Financial) - Philippine central bank chief Amando Tetangco Friday downplayed any impact from the US subprime market woes on the domestic financial system, saying local banks have no significant exposure to collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which are at the heart of the US credit problems.
He said any impact on the Philippine economy "will be largely indirect, mainly in the form of risk aversion."
"It is expected to be limited. Philippine banks are not exposed in any significant way to CDOs," he said in a mobile phone text message.
CDOs are securities backed by bonds and loans and which could include US subprime mortgages.
"There is sufficient liquidity. More fundamentally, the increased availability of longer-term funding in pesos has also reduced the country's vulnerability to adverse external market developments," he said.
Philippine equities plunged Friday following another major slump in markets worldwide after BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, froze withdrawals from three of its funds that had invested in subprime mortgages in the US.
At 11.42 am here, the composite index was down 97.19 points or 2.9 percent at 3,288.01.
The peso fell to 45.73 against the US dollar from Thursday's close of 45.36.

UPDATE: BOJ Official: O/N Rate Rise May Be On Subprime Woes

TOKYO -(Dow Jones)- A Bank of Japan official said Friday that the central bank injected Y1 trillion into money markets after the overnight call rate rose from the BOJ's target of 0.50% to 0.54%-0.55%. The Japanese central bank's fund injection followed similar steps overnight by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, as market worries about the U.S. subprime loan crisis escalated. The BOJ official said it was "possible" that the rise was tied to the subprime crisis, but that the bank didn't know for sure. "We're not certain if that is related (to subprime) or not. It all depends on why the overnight call rate was a little bit high this morning," the official said. "We're not sure why some of the financial institutions were raising funds at a higher rate than on other days.

" The official called the step "an extension of our normal day-to-day operations," but noted that the last time the BOJ made such a large cash injection was June 29 - just as the U.S. subprime crisis flared. The injections follow French banking giant BNP Paribas' decision to freeze three funds that trade in mortgage-backed securities, saying the dramatic absence of liquidity in the market for such products as the subprime crisis spreads has made it impossible to accurately value the funds' holdings. A BOJ official said the bank acted after the overnight call rate rose to 0.54%-0.55%, above the bank's target rate of 0.5%. It is "possible" that the rise in the key rate was related to the subprime chaos, the official said, though he added that the BOJ is "not certain" of the cause. "We're not certain if that is related (to subprime) or not. It all depends on why the overnight call rate was a little bit high this morning," said the BOJ official. "We're not sure why some of the financial institutions were raising funds at a higher rate than on other days." The official described the move as "an extension of our normal day-to-day operations. The rates were a bit high, deviating a little bit away from our target, so we thought it might be necessary to inject some liquidity.

" The ECB took the almost unprecedented step of injecting nearly EUR95 billion into European money markets overnight, and the Fed funneled $24 billion into U.S. credit markets. "Suddenly, central banks have changed their tune from a wait-and-see stance on the subprime issue to a move to stabilize the financial system," Barclays Capital analyst Masuhisa Kobayashi wrote in a research note Friday. He said the start of action could either mean that the credit market and financial system have destabilized to the extent that central banks had to take action, or that the action was meant to prevent such a situation, and things should calm down going forward. He added: "The market seems to have taken the former, more pessimistic view." But the BOJ official suggested that the central banks had not coordinated their moves. "We're all responding to the situation in our domestic markets. It might mean that something common behind our domestic markets is happening, but we're not certain," he said. -By Michael S. Arnold, Dow Jones Newswires; 81-3-5255-2929;

michael.arnold@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones NewswiresAugust 09, 2007 23:39 ET (03:39 GMT)

Yen Rallied after BNP Froze Funds

The yen rose sharply BNP Paribas, France’s biggest bank, froze three investment funds worth 1.6 billion euros, raising concern the US subprime mortgage sector woes is spreading worldwide. The ECB today injected 94.8 billion euros into the region’s banking market to meet the sudden liquidity demand. The US subprime worries prompted investors to unwind carry trades, driving the yen higher against high-yielding currencies.

The euro slumped from 165 to 161.55 versus the yen, while the sterling slid from 244 to test the 239 level. The yen strengthened from 119.75 to as low as 118.20 versus the dollar. As a safe haven currency, the dollar also benefited from anti-risk trades. The euro fell off the 1.38 handle and was supported by the 1.3650 level versus the dollar. The sterling dipped from 2.04 to as low as 2.0212.

Rate Sentiment Drives FX

The dollar was mixed in the Wednesday session amid a dearth of fresh US economic news, climbing higher against the yen but falling sharply versus the sterling. The data release was limited to June wholesale inventories, which was slightly higher than expected at 0.5%, unchanged from the previous month. Interest rate expectations continue to play a key role in the FX market, with the Aussie and sterling regaining its footing on hawkish sentiment from both respective central banks.

Dollar Slipped after FOMC

The Fed kept interest rates at 5.25% unchanged as widely expected. The Fed acknowledged tightening credit conditions and slowing economy, but maintained its bias against inflationary pressure for fear that inflation may not moderate as expected. The dollar fell slightly against the euro and sterling after the post-meeting statement.The euro will face resistance at 1.3750, followed by 1.3780 and 1.38. Additional gains will target 1.3830 and 1.3850. Meanwhile, on the downside the pair will encounter support at 1.3720 followed by 1.37 and 1.3680. Subsequent floors will emerge at 1.3650, backed by 1.3620 and 1.36.

Currency Update (USD)

Rates as of 2007.08.09 20:09:33 UTC (GMT). Base currency is USD.

Currency Unit USD per Unit Units per USD
================================ =================== ===================
USD United States Dollars 1.0000000000 1.0000000000
EUR Euro 1.3670699939 0.7314914412
GBP United Kingdom Pounds 2.0228027264 0.4943635813
CAD Canada Dollars 0.9455760402 1.0575564074
AUD Australia Dollars 0.8499814810 1.1764962207
JPY Japan Yen 0.0084560880 118.2579932900
INR India Rupees 0.0247770069 40.3600000000
NZD New Zealand Dollars 0.7522242181 1.3293908597
CHF Switzerland Francs 0.8352969058 1.1971791026
ZAR South Africa Rand 0.1393100689 7.1782320381
AFN Afghanistan Afghanis 0.0200980593 49.7560478180
ALL Albania Leke 0.0112449890 88.9285000000
DZD Algeria Dinars 0.0145964093 68.5100000051
ARS Argentina Pesos 0.3177433687 3.1471939258
AUD Australia Dollars 0.8499814810 1.1764962207
BSD Bahamas Dollars 1.0000000000 1.0000000000
BHD Bahrain Dinars 2.6533644661 0.3768800000
BDT Bangladesh Taka 0.0145985401 68.5000000000
BBD Barbados Dollars 0.5012531328 1.9950000000
BMD Bermuda Dollars 1.0000000000 1.0000000000
BRL Brazil Reais 0.5180005183 1.9304999990
BGN Bulgaria Leva 0.6990569567 1.4304986030
CAD Canada Dollars 0.9455760402 1.0575564074
XOF CFA Francs BCEAO 0.0020840848 479.8269312805
XAF CFA Francs BEAC 0.0020840848 479.8269312805
XPF CFP Francs 0.0114560465 87.2901481119
CLP Chile Pesos 0.0019230769 520.0000000000
CNY China Yuan Renminbi 0.1321772232 7.5656000000
COP Colombia Pesos 0.0005037783 1,985.0000000000
CRC Costa Rica Colones 0.0019285287 518.5300000000
HRK Croatia Kuna 0.1870105255 5.3472926060
CYP Cyprus Pounds 2.3446658851 0.4265000000
CZK Czech Republic Koruny 0.0486284508 20.5640933328
DKK Denmark Kroner 0.1836755962 5.4443814015
DOP Dominican Republic Pesos 0.0307266861 32.5450000000
XCD East Caribbean Dollars 0.3745318352 2.6700000000
EGP Egypt Pounds 0.1770031580 5.6496167142
EEK Estonia Krooni 0.0873714736 11.4453832432
EUR Euro 1.3670699939 0.7314914412
FJD Fiji Dollars 0.6341694274 1.5768656716
XAU Gold Ounces 661.0788238147 0.0015126789
HKD Hong Kong Dollars 0.1278159618 7.8237489717
HUF Hungary Forint 0.0054448655 183.6592642840
ISK Iceland Kronur 0.0155231295 64.4200000000
XDR IMF Special Drawing Rights 1.5264292029 0.6551237346
INR India Rupees 0.0247770069 40.3600000000
IDR Indonesia Rupiahs 0.0001074810 9,303.9695928448
IRR Iran Rials 0.0001078981 9,268.0000000000
IQD Iraq Dinars 0.0008074283 1,238.5000000000
ILS Israel New Shekels 0.2340550029 4.2725000000
JMD Jamaica Dollars 0.0145101751 68.9171559035
JPY Japan Yen 0.0084560880 118.2579932900
JOD Jordan Dinars 1.4104372355 0.7090000000
KES Kenya Shillings 0.0150602410 66.4000000000
KWD Kuwait Dinars 3.5505059468 0.2816500000
LBP Lebanon Pounds 0.0006596306 1,516.0000000000
MYR Malaysia Ringgits 0.2876316425 3.4766689488
MTL Malta Liri 3.1846839488 0.3140029014
MUR Mauritius Rupees 0.0327508837 30.5335272405
MXN Mexico Pesos 0.0908222781 11.0105143917
MAD Morocco Dirhams 0.1221478477 8.1868000048
NZD New Zealand Dollars 0.7522242181 1.3293908597
NGN Nigeria Nairas 0.0078789789 126.9200000000
NOK Norway Kroner 0.1720531678 5.8121568622
OMR Oman Rials 2.5972002181 0.3850300000
PKR Pakistan Rupees 0.0165261940 60.5100000000
XPD Palladium Ounces 359.9999999997 0.0027777778
PEN Peru Nuevos Soles 0.3174603175 3.1500000000
PHP Philippines Pesos 0.0218435998 45.7800000000
XPT Platinum Ounces 1,268.4999999991 0.0007883327
PLN Poland Zlotych 0.3620298207 2.7622033957
QAR Qatar Riyals 0.2746875429 3.6404999999
RON Romania New Lei 0.4325593119 2.3118216913
RUB Russia Rubles 0.0392834700 25.4559996800
SAR Saudi Arabia Riyals 0.2666674488 3.7499890014
XAG Silver Ounces 12.6350159729 0.0791451314
SGD Singapore Dollars 0.6588917436 1.5177000012
SKK Slovakia Koruny 0.0408133684 24.5017757400
SIT Slovenia Tolars 0.0057046820 175.2946089638
ZAR South Africa Rand 0.1393100689 7.1782320381
KRW South Korea Won 0.0010815118 924.6316188868
LKR Sri Lanka Rupees 0.0089349535 111.9200000000
SDD Sudan Dinars 0.0049885264 200.4600000000
SEK Sweden Kronor 0.1475615421 6.7768334894
CHF Switzerland Francs 0.8352969058 1.1971791026
TWD Taiwan New Dollars 0.0303204876 32.9810000000
THB Thailand Baht 0.0319308111 31.3177136463
TTD Trinidad and Tobago Dollars 0.1592261843 6.2803740756
TND Tunisia Dinars 0.7833307221 1.2766000002
TRY Turkey New Lira 0.7723207590 1.2947988103
AED United Arab Emirates Dirhams 0.2722495984 3.6730999999
GBP United Kingdom Pounds 2.0228027264 0.4943635813
USD United States Dollars 1.0000000000 1.0000000000
VEB Venezuela Bolivares 0.0004663092 2,144.5000000000
VND Vietnam Dong 0.0000618506 16,168.0000000000
ZMK Zambia Kwacha 0.0002544529 3,930.0000000000

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